What is an inverted yield curve?

An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term yields — most commonly when the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year yield. This inversion has preceded every US recession since the 1970s with a 12–24 month lag and is the most watched macro recession indicator.

What does yield curve inversion mean for stocks?

Historically, the S&P 500 has often continued to rally for 6–18 months after initial inversion before a recession-driven decline begins. The inversion signals that markets expect the Fed to eventually cut rates due to economic weakness — which is ultimately bullish for bonds but marks the late stage of an economic cycle.

What is the 2-year vs 10-year spread?

The 2s10s spread (10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield) is the most widely watched recession indicator. When negative (inverted), short-term borrowing is more expensive than long-term, which squeezes bank margins and signals growth expectations have deteriorated.

How does the yield curve affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields closely — when the 10-year rises, 30-year fixed mortgage rates follow within weeks. A steep yield curve (rising 10-year yields) means higher mortgage costs for buyers and lower home affordability.

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