F vs GM: GM Has the Cleaner EV Story; Ford Has the Commercial Truck Franchise That Prints Money
Ford and GM are both cheap on earnings — 5–8x forward P/E is typical for traditional auto. But they are navigating the EV transition with very different results. GM has achieved EV profitability milestones on the Ultium platform. Ford's Model e EV division lost $5B+ in 2024 while Ford Pro (commercial trucks and vans) generated record profits. The same stock, two very different businesses inside it.
The Core Difference
Ford has reorganized itself into three reporting segments: Ford Pro (commercial), Ford Blue (ICE consumer), and Model e (EV). This transparency is actually a problem — it reveals that Model e is hemorrhaging money at a rate that Ford Pro and Ford Blue are struggling to cover. The F-150 Lightning, while a credible product, has seen demand softer than projected. Ford has cut its EV production targets multiple times and has been slower than GM to reach EV profitability milestones.
GM's Ultium platform is showing better trajectory. The Chevy Silverado EV has received strong reviews, the Blazer EV has recovered from software issues, and GM's manufacturing experience from scaling Bolt production has helped control costs. GM also does not report EV separately — analysts suspect this is partly because the blended profitability picture is more favorable than Ford's stark Model e disclosures.
Business Comparison
- Ford Pro: commercial trucks/vans, record margins 12–15%
- Ford Blue: ICE consumer (F-Series, Bronco, Mustang)
- Model e EV: losing $5B+/yr — major drag
- ~5%+ dividend yield
- Warranty/quality issues dragging FCF
- Jim Farley focused on software + commercial
- Trucks/SUVs dominate: Silverado, Sierra, Tahoe, Escalade
- Ultium EV platform approaching profitability
- OnStar + software services growing
- ~1% yield + aggressive share buybacks
- Cruise robotaxi — scaled back, restructured
- Mary Barra disciplined on capital allocation
Ford Pro Is Underappreciated
The market tends to view Ford as a consumer auto company — it is not, anymore. Ford Pro generates roughly 60% of Ford's total EBIT despite being one of three divisions. Commercial fleets (Amazon, FedEx, government) buy Transit vans, Ranger pickups, and F-Series commercial trucks with long replacement cycles and high software attach rates (Ford Pro Intelligence fleet management). This is a sticky, recurring-revenue business inside an automaker's stock.
The problem is that Ford Pro is bailing out Model e. Until Ford either makes EVs profitable or explicitly exits the consumer EV market and focuses on commercial EVs (where it has natural advantages), the market will continue applying a discount for the EV loss burden.
Who Should Buy Which
Technical Signals — What to Watch
Both F and GM are cyclical value stocks that trade on earnings revisions and macro auto demand signals. Watch monthly US auto sales data (SAAR) as the primary leading indicator for both stocks.
- RSI: Both stocks regularly hit oversold levels (RSI below 35) during broad market fear — these have historically been buying opportunities if SAAR data is still supportive.
- MACD: Ford MACD is noisier due to warranty cost surprises in earnings — crossovers ahead of earnings carry more uncertainty than GM's cleaner reports.
- Volume: Watch for unusual volume on both names during SAAR releases and quarterly earnings — Ford's is particularly volatile on Model e loss guidance updates.
APEX scores both stocks daily across RSI, MACD, moving averages, volume, and 52-week position. Updated every market day.
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