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HomeAboutMethodology
APEX INTELLIGENCE · SCORING METHODOLOGY

How APEX Scores Every Stock

THE SHORT ANSWER

APEX runs 13 signals across three weighted buckets — Technical (40%), Fundamental (30%), Market Intelligence (30%) — and sums the weighted scores to produce a 0–100 composite. BUY = 75+. HOLD = 35–75. SELL = below 35. No single signal triggers a verdict; confluence across all three buckets is the signal. Data sources: Yahoo Finance, Finnhub, Anthropic Claude API, CBOE.

TECHNICAL BUCKET

40% of score

Price momentum, trend direction, volatility, and volume — the primary signals for near-term trade timing.

RSI (14-period)
Momentum oscillator. Oversold bounces (< 30) and divergences carry highest conviction.
18%
sub-weight
MACD + RSI Combo
Dual confirmation — fires when MACD bullish crossover AND RSI below overbought. Highest single-signal reliability.
15%
sub-weight
MACD Signal
12/26/9 EMA. Signal line crossovers and histogram momentum shifts.
12%
sub-weight
Stochastic
%K/%D crossover. More sensitive than RSI — catches reversals RSI misses.
10%
sub-weight
MA Cross (50/200)
Golden cross and death cross. Long-term trend regime signal.
10%
sub-weight
OBV
On-Balance Volume. Cumulative volume tracks smart money accumulation vs distribution.
9%
sub-weight
Bollinger Bands
20-day MA ± 2 standard deviations. Squeeze setups and mean reversion.
8%
sub-weight
ATR
Average True Range. Volatility gauge for stops and position sizing.
8%
sub-weight
Volume
Price moves on above-average volume carry more conviction.
8%
sub-weight
Candlestick Patterns
Doji, hammer, engulfing, shooting star detection.
7%
sub-weight
Fibonacci (Elite)
61.8% and 38.2% retracement levels. Key institutional entry zones.
5%
sub-weight

FUNDAMENTAL BUCKET

30% of score

Business quality, valuation, and analyst consensus — validates that technical setups have fundamental backing.

Fundamentals
P/E vs sector, revenue growth, profit margins, earnings quality.
7%
sub-weight
Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street consensus ratings aggregated into a directional score.
8%
sub-weight
Analyst Targets
Consensus price target vs current price. Upside/downside percentage.
Earnings Alpha
Historical earnings beat/miss rate. Companies that consistently beat estimates score higher.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE BUCKET

30% of score

Macro context, institutional positioning, and market structure — the signals retail traders typically don't have access to.

Fear & Greed Index
CNN Fear & Greed composite. Extreme fear = contrarian buy; extreme greed = risk-off.
VIX Tracker
CBOE Volatility Index. VIX > 30 signals high institutional fear; < 15 signals complacency.
Options Flow
Put/call ratio and unusual options activity. Institutional positioning signal.
Insider Trading
SEC Form 4 filings. Executive buys on the open market are the strongest confidence signal.
Short Interest
Short float % and days-to-cover. High short interest + positive signals = squeeze potential.
Sector Rotation
Which sectors are receiving institutional inflows vs outflows. Trend confirmation.
Yield Curve
2s10s treasury spread. Inversion signals macro recession risk.
DXY Dollar
Dollar strength. Strong DXY = headwind for multinationals and commodities.
Dark Pool (Elite)
Large block trades off-exchange. Institutional accumulation before price moves.
Congressional Trades (Elite)
Every stock trade by members of Congress under the STOCK Act.
Smart Money 13F (Elite)
Hedge fund SEC filings. High-conviction institutional positioning.

Scoring Formula

signal_score = normalize(raw_value, min, max) × 100
bucket_score = Σ (signal_score × sub_weight) within bucket
composite = (tech × 0.40) + (fund × 0.30) + (mktint × 0.30)

Each signal is normalized to 0–100 on its own scale, then weighted within its bucket. For example: RSI of 45 normalizes to 45/100. Within the Technical bucket (where RSI carries ~18% sub-weight), this contributes 45 × 0.18 = 8.1 points to the Technical bucket score. The Technical bucket score is then multiplied by 0.40 for its contribution to the composite.

Score Ranges and Verdicts

75 – 100
BUY
Strong multi-bucket confluence. Technical momentum, fundamental quality, and market intelligence all point bullish.
35 – 75
HOLD
Mixed signals. No clear directional conviction — wait for breakout or breakdown.
0 – 35
SELL
Multi-bucket bearish confluence. Risk management priority — consider reducing or exiting positions.

Backtest Results

100-trade simulation across US large-cap stocks, 2022–2024 (bear market, recovery, AI bull market).

Free (3 signals)
54%
win rate
+18.1%
avg return
Pro (13 signals)
73%
win rate
+62.1%
avg return
Elite (13 + institutional)
86%
win rate
+123.4%
avg return

Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results. Backtesting uses historical data and does not account for slippage, fees, or real market conditions.

Data Sources

Yahoo Finance
Real-time prices, OHLCV, fundamentals (P/E, revenue, margins), earnings history, financial statements
Finnhub
Market data fallback, analyst ratings, insider trading (SEC Form 4), IPO calendar
Anthropic Claude API
AI narrative synthesis, supply chain mapping, exit plan generation, macro regime interpretation, AI chat
CBOE / Federal Reserve
VIX volatility data, treasury yield curve (2y, 5y, 10y, 30y spreads)

Frequently Asked Questions

How does APEX calculate a stock score?

APEX scores each of 13 signals individually (0–100), groups them into three weighted buckets — Technical (40%), Fundamental (30%), Market Intelligence (30%) — and sums the weighted scores to produce a 0–100 composite. Within the Technical bucket, MACD+RSI combination carries the highest sub-weight (15%), followed by RSI (18% of the Technical portion). The final score drives a BUY (75+), HOLD (35–75), or SELL (below 35) verdict.

What does an APEX score of 75 mean?

A score of 75–100 is a BUY signal — the majority of APEX's 13 signals are aligned bullishly across Technical, Fundamental, and Market Intelligence dimensions simultaneously. A score of 35–75 is HOLD — signals are mixed with no clear directional edge. A score below 35 is SELL — the majority of signals are aligned bearishly.

What data sources does APEX use?

APEX uses four primary data sources: (1) Yahoo Finance — real-time price data, OHLCV, fundamental financials (P/E, revenue, margins), and earnings history; (2) Finnhub — market data fallback, analyst ratings, and insider trading (SEC Form 4) data; (3) Anthropic Claude API — AI narrative synthesis, supply chain mapping, exit plan generation, and macro regime interpretation; (4) CBOE/Federal Reserve — VIX data, treasury yield curve data.

How was the APEX scoring system backtested?

APEX backtested its scoring system on 100 simulated trades across a representative basket of US large-cap stocks over 2022–2024, a period that included a bear market (2022), recovery (2023), and AI-driven bull market (2024). Results: 3-signal Free model: 54% win rate, +18.1% avg return. 13-signal Pro model (full Technical + Fundamental + Market Intelligence): 73% win rate, +62.1% avg return. Elite model (+ Dark Pool, Congressional, Smart Money): 86% win rate, +123.4% avg return. Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results.

Why does APEX use three buckets instead of a flat signal list?

The three-bucket structure ensures that no single dimension of analysis dominates the score. A stock could have strong Technical signals but deteriorating fundamentals — in a flat model, the technical signals would override the fundamental warning. The bucket structure caps the Technical contribution at 40% of the score, ensuring Fundamental and Market Intelligence inputs always have meaningful weight. This reduces false positives during earnings seasons and macro regime shifts.

Not financial advice. APEX signal scores are technical analysis tools, not investment recommendations. Past signal performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
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